Sunday, May 21, 2006


IF AMERICANS voted at the same rate that they did in 1964, 17 million more voters would show up at the polls this fall. And most pollsters would not have added them to their equations. Most politicians would not have even gone after them. The polls would likely be badly wrong.

Poll samples are based on the assumption that people are going to behave the way they normally do and the results are usually pretty good. But what happens when that isn't the case?

In New Orleans, for example, a poll taken a few days before the runoff election found Mitch Landrieu ahead by ten points. What happened? We don't know yet but it is safe to say that the sample didn't match people's actual behavior on election day. The same week 25 incumbent legislators lost their seats in primaries.

We recently ran a report that found nearly three-quarters of young voters saying they were planning to cast ballots this fall. In a country that barely brings out 55% of the total voter in a presidential race this would be extraordinary and would dramatically alter the results.

A Washington Post story finds latino voters turning against the Republicans: "Democrats were viewed as better able to handle immigration issues than Republicans, by nearly 3 to 1: 50 percent to 17 percent. Pitting the Democrats against Bush on immigration issues produced a 2 to 1 Democratic advantage, 45 percent to 22 percent. . .

"Even if the GOP does maintain Bush's margins among Latinos in 2008, another study found that Democrats are likely to achieve a net gain in future elections, simply because Hispanics are growing as a share of the electorate.

"Ken Strasma, a Democratic strategist who specializes in using demographic data to target potential voters, and the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University conducted a study concluding that, if past voting patterns hold, the growing Hispanic population means that Democrats will increase their 2004 vote totals by nearly half a million votes in 2008."

And what if latino voters are mad enough to vote in significantly larger numbers than normal? More room for surprise.

The Review has been exceptionally accurate on its projections based on averaging the last three polls. But we gotta say our gut tells us this year could be different.


At May 21, 2006 1:53 PM, July Canute said...

What do "latinos" know of American politics. They are another group which votes for their own interests at the expense of Americans.

Democrats appear to be the party friendly to them but actually only liberals out of the northeast fit that bill. Thats because they look down their noses on all AMericans in the heartland and seek whatever is in the best interests of Israel and anybody else on the planet but white people and Christians.

A solution would be to get liberals and Meixcans out of our country and send them back to where they came from.

At May 21, 2006 2:04 PM, Anonymous said...

why does sam give a damn whether the democrats do well or not? isnt the real issue as to whether we tear down the two-party system? democrat rule will just bring us a slightly different trajectory careening into the same results.

At May 21, 2006 3:44 PM, This Liberal CAME from the U.S. said...

What do "latinos" know of American politics. They are another group which votes for their own interests at the expense of Americans.

If they're merely voting for their own interests, it shows they know American politics perfectly.

At May 21, 2006 8:22 PM, Anonymous said...

If the election machines are rigged what does any of this matter?

At May 21, 2006 11:58 PM, Yo soy Angelino said...

Isn't it fascinating observing Latinos as they attempt to assimilate on the streets of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco...
It must be difficult adjusting to strange street names as La Brea, La Cienega, Pico, or El Camino Real.
Imagine the disorientation as they trek along the coast through Coronado, La Jolla, San Clemente, Redondo, Hermosa, Playa Del Rey...
So, my question might be, exactly who are the interlopers?

The notion of a substantial Latino voting population does give reason for pause.
Their self-interest has given rise to leaders such as Chavez and Morales.
When whitey votes his self-interest we end up with the likes of Cheney and Bush.
I'll leave to you to decide which is better.

At May 22, 2006 10:48 AM, Anonymous said...

July Canute bemoans that liberals and Mexicans should get out of their country. Massachusettes, Colorado, California are not Anglican names, they are names native to America, not Europe.

Also, those who left England to gain religious freedom here in the new world, by their mission statement alone, were liberals fleeing the conservative doctrine of English religion.

It would be nice if people in the "heartland" actually showed a little heart once in a while, a smattering of brains wouldn't hurt either, but that's why the red states make up Dumbfuckastan.

At May 22, 2006 4:56 PM, Anonymous said...

Sure write off the heartland.

Place all your hopes in demographic changes AND....

lose anyway!

I've been hearing about the impending "latino surge" in voter participation for the last 30 years and it seems to have gone the way of the democrats retaking the south when blacks start voting in sufficient numbers.

OTOH Ruy Teixeira (!) acknowledges the "white working class still matters." (just don't tell the folks at "race traitor" they'll lose their reason for living!)

My gut feeling tells me--long term--is that by the time latino voters start to vote in proportion similar to the population at large they will split their vote in a manner not unlike the population at large. In other words, don't expect them to be another captive voter bloc like blacks or jews have been historically for the democrats.

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At May 21, 2007 9:12 PM, Anonymous said...

You might want to put a filter on your comments. But Angelino sounds like a race baiter.
At May 21, 2006 11:58 PM, Yo soy Angelino said...

When whitey votes his self-interest we end up with the likes of Cheney and Bush.

...don't forget Gonzalez!

He's "latino" right?


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